My previous blog post reported on the findings of a study of retirement facilities and their rates of mortality, among other attributes. In that post, I speculated (without actual evidence) that Kendal-Crosslands Communities would fare well in such a comparison.  

Subsequently, I realized that I might actually have some data related to the topic.

In the study, which was sponsored by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care and conducted by the University of Chicago, the two-year mortality rate was calculated for 464 different CCRC (or “LifePlan”) communities. This calculation was based on the number of residents who died within two years of their move-in dates. The study used 2017 move-ins as the basis for their statistics.

The average 2-year mortality rate for CCRCs was about 14%. The top quartile of CCRCs had a mortality rate of under 7%, and the bottom quartile had a rate of over 24%. (The study did not report explicit percentages, but I was able to derive close approximations from the study’s graphs.) Where might Kendal’s rate fall?

Calculating Kendal’s 2-year mortality. I don’t have statistics about Kendal’s 2017 move-ins and their 2-year mortality (the group that the study used) so I can’t replicate the exact calculation from the study. But it happens that I do have information about 2021 move-ins at Kendal and information about the 2-year mortality of that group, and I presume the mortality of the 2021 group would not be likely to deviate too substantially from the 2017 move-ins.

Here are my sources of data. For a different project, I had collected data from Kendal’s January 2022 “Who’s Here” directory, including move-in year. From that data, I find that Kendal had 30 move-ins in 2021. Of that list of 30, 29 residents are still alive now in March 2024 (based on Who’s Here as well as personal knowledge), which means they survived at least two full calendar years (2022 and 2023). That information yields a mortality rate of 1 in 30, or 3.3%.

Kendal’s 3.3% rate would put it high in the top quartile of CCRCs (2-year mortality of 7% or less). And that 3.3% is even more impressive since I wasn’t working from actual move-in dates (just the year of move-in), which means that those who arrived in early 2021 have actually been here about 3 years.

Mortality rates for various senior housing communities. I have added the red annotations to show where Kendal fits. The chart itself is from: https://content.nic.org/NIC_Analysis-of-Longevity-Among-Senior-Housing_Summary_Report.

Why is our mortality rate low? What can explain the Kendal’s low level of 2-year mortality? It could be a statistical fluke, of course. But there are other factors that might be at play, such as:

  • Maybe our health care is better than average for CCRCs
  • Maybe our move-ins are younger or healthier than the average CCRC move-in
  • Maybe our medical acceptance criteria for prospective residents are more demanding than the average CCRC
  • Maybe Kendal’s lifestyle promotes longevity

There is also research showing that social connections increase longevity, and that could be a factor here. Kendal has very strong community ties.

Personally, I think it is likely that all of these factors are at play. Kendal found, from its earliest days, that its residents outlived what would be expected from standard actuarial tables, and I believe we continue to be exceptionally long-lived.